U.S. Treasury debt prices rose Thursday after disappointing data on
jobless claims fueled worries about slowing U.S. economic growth, which
would hold down inflation and keep alive the chances of more bond
purchases from the Federal Reserve.
Weaker-than-expected European economic figures stoked fears that the
region is entering a recession and compounded safe-haven bids for U.S.
government debt, analysts and traders said.
"We've seen a deterioration in data in the U.S. and Europe. That's
keeping a bid for Treasuries," said Jason Brady, portfolio manager at
Santa Fe, N.M.-based Thornburg Investment Management, which oversees $82
billion in assets.
Benchmark 10-year notes last traded up 11/32 in price for a yield of
1.95%, down 4 basis points on the day. They were up as much as 16/32
with a 1.93% yield, helped partly on safety bidding on persistent
worries about contagion risk from the euro zone debt crisis.
The U.S. government said initial claims for jobless benefits dropped
by only 1,000 in the latest week to 388,000, which was far fewer than
forecast. On the other hand, the National Association of Realtors said
pending home sales rose 4.1% to nearly a two-year high.
In Europe, Italian business sentiment fell to its lowest level in
2-1/2 years, while an index on broader euro zone economic sentiment fell
more than expected in April.
This risk-averse climate helped spur bidding for $29 billion in new
seven-year notes, the last leg of this week's $99 billion in
coupon-bearing supply.
The U.S. Treasury Department on Thursday sold new debt securities due
in April 2019 at 1.347%, the lowest yield at a seven-year auction.
There was no clear consensus on the future path of U.S. monetary
policy, a day after the Federal Reserve affirmed its commitment to
near-zero interest rates and hinted at no imminent move to embark on a
third bout of large-scale bond purchasing, dubbed QE3, to stimulate U.S.
economic growth with unemployment stuck at a historic high.
The Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed's policy-setting group,
moderately upgraded its outlook on the U.S. economy for a second
straight meeting. That was offset by Chairman Ben Bernanke's press
conference on Wednesday, where he signaled the Fed is prepared to inject
more stimulus if U.S. economic growth slows much further.
On Friday, the government will release its first reading on U.S.
gross domestic product, which analysts predicted likely grew at an
annualized rate of 2.5%, slower than the 3% annualized rate in the last
quarter of 2011.
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