Thursday, March 1, 2012

No structural problems have been solved

A deal has been struck in Euroland. It is, of course, merely another charade. More pretend and extend. This morning’s euphoria in stock markets will not last long. Once details are available, markets will see through the sham. My guess is that markets cannot remain euphoric for longer than the end of this week.
Mish’s assessment is similar:
Although many details are yet to be resolved, the bulls got everything they wanted except endless printing by the ECB. However, the sad fundamental situation remains unchanged
  1. No structural problems have been solved
  2. Banks most assuredly need more than 106 billion in recapitalization efforts. The idea that French banks only need to raise 8.8 billion is preposterous.
  3. No investors in their right mind will fund Greek and Spanish banks to the tune of 56.2 billion euros
  4. The haircuts were not voluntary
Instead of the rumor mill of potential actions working to lift the market 24 hours a day for three straight weeks, it will be up to the EU to make the plan work. However, the plan won’t work because of point number one above: not a single structural problem has been solved.
I put some short positions on shortly after the open this morning. Whether these win or lose remains to be seen. My thoughts are that the recent Euroland action is irrelevant, at least in terms of altering reality. It may be necessary “public relations,” but it does nothing to solve the mounting problems. Europe continues to ratchet to ruin.

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