Tuesday, March 13, 2012

The US economy are harmed


Is history about to repeat regarding a currency crisis?
Many predict that our current economic mess will ultimately trigger an international currency crisis. While the dollar has been weak for several years, it has not yet”collapsed.”  Those who see this end fall into two camps. The first camp believes at some point there will be a rush to abandon the dollar on the part of foreigners triggering a collapse. The second camp believes that a new international currency will be “sprung” on the world that will involve in some manner a severe devaluation of the dollar. Either way, both the dollar and the US economy are harmed.
The last major currency crisis was August 15, 1971 when Richard Nixon closed the gold window. This action was taken with no advance notice and involved a de facto and de jure devaluation of the dollar. Until that point we were under the Bretton Woods accord and on a quasi gold standard. International currencies were pegged to the dollar at fixed rates and the dollar was pegged to gold. Any foreign country had the right to redeem its dollars for US-held gold. Pressured by dollar redemptions for gold, primarily by Charles de Gaulle of France, US was forced to default on its redemption promise as US gold supplies shrunk.  From that time forward the world has been on a fiat currency system known as the floating exchange system. Nothing backs any currency. Currencies all “float” in value relative to each other.
Currently there is much open talk of the need for a new currency system. Russia, China and others have expressed dissatisfaction with both US fiscal/monetary policies and with the dollar as the international currency. One may only speculate regarding the private discussions regarding the problem/solution. With certainty, options are being considered. None of these will be good for the dollar or the US. It is likely that whatever change occurs will be without advance warning, at least for us normal citizens.
Some behind-the-scenes information has been made available regarding private discussions that preceded the 1971 announcement. Tyler Durden has some fascinating pieces pertaining to these matters. They are highly recommended for those who enjoy economic history, especially because it may be in the process of repeating or at least rhyming.

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